I'd be surprised if it did win.
Innovative or not, it's a game about a ball.
People these days want games about heroes or anti-heroes with thirteen swords or fifty guns--or both. And 'hot' girls who wear battle armor that only covers 20% of their body.
I don't think that's necessarily true. Many designers, especially independent, are shifting towards more simplistic design. Take recent hits like N+, Braid, World of Goo, and Castle Crashers for example. Most successful "Wii-ware" or "Live arcade" games are simple and artistic. Which is why I think NG has huge potential for success
...However, that statement
is true in JRPGs. And shooters. Which is mostly just tacky.