Harumph.
Even if Victor is the investigator, will he be of any use (assuming he has the chance to be of use and isn't nightkilled asap)?
I definitely see the logic in not believing Victor. It is surely not crazy to lynch him.
Anyway, I think it is safe to say that Victor is very probably either the investigator or scum.
Assuming we lynch him:
- and he isn't the investigator (therefore probably is mafia): Great gain for town, we also gain great insight into the other mafia member
- and he is the investigator: Loss for town, but perhaps one which would happen either way, as Victor has already rendered himself useless. It is unlikely we will be able to garner information from him as he probably will be killed N1.
Assuming we don't lynch him:
- and he isn't the investigator (therefore probably is mafia): We have a serious issue, as the actions of the real investigator will be seriously hindered, while we are in a deluded state of pandering to mafia interest
- and he is the investigator: Perhaps the same effect as lynching an inactive townie as we probably won't be able to garner any information from him before he is nightkilled. So we will be sacrificing a more active townie today for nothing.
In the short term, it looks like it is in our interests to lynch Victor. And I would not oppose such a movement.
However, if we let Victor live, perhaps there is a more long-term gain. That of controlling the N1 kill? I can see only benefits from knowing who will be sacrificed. And if the mafia try something weird and don't kill Vic N1 we get information D2.
So there's that as well.
So it's a complex issue.